Back in 2018, a mere eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains measured in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.
David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of deciding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past
This situation returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Risk & A Prudent Memory
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.
It would be prudent of him to remember the impact just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.
